Tuesday’s first game in the NBA playoffs is a matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. The game at the American Airlines Arena in South Beach is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET, and will be televised on NBA TV.
In Game 1 of this series, the Miami Heat had their way with the Bucks, winning 110-87, and covering the spread as 13 point home favorites. The total was a PUSH in that one a 197 total points.
The Bucks are 38-45 SU and 37-46 ATS so far this season. They are 17-25 on the road. Before the Game 1 loss to the Heat, they had a 95-89 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder to close out the regular season. In that one, they covered the spread as 3 ½ point road underdogs. Before that, they suffered a 112-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets, but covered the spread as 5 ½ point home underdogs. The Bucks are 4-6 ATS over their last ten games.
The Heat are 67-16 SU and 47-36 ATS overall this year. They are 38-4 at home. Before defeating the Bucks in Game 1, they had a 105-93 win over the Orlando Magic in the final game of the regular season. In that one, they covered the spread as 7 ½ point home favorites. Prior to that, they had a 96-95 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and covered the spread as 1 ½ point road underdogs. The Heat are 8-2 ATS over their last ten games.
Milwaukee is 9-4 ATS on Tuesday, and 7-15 ATS overall lately. They are 19-42 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 4-11-1 ATS in the Conference Quarterfinals. They are 2-9 ATS on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4 games in the Conference Quarterfinals, and UNDER in 7 of their last 10 road games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Miami is 4-0 ATS overall lately, and 4-0 ATS against the Central Division. They are 10-1 ATS against teams with a losing overall record, and 5-1 ATS at home. They are 5-1 ATS in the Conference Quarterfinals. The total has gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 at home, and OVER in 4 of their last 6 games overall. The total has gone OVER in 3 of their last 5 at home against teams with a losing road record, and UNDER in 5 of their last 8 against the Central Division.
Between these teams, the total has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and UNDER in 8 of their last 11 matchups in Miami.
For tonight’s game, the Heat are listed as 14 ½ point home favorites. The over/under is set at 197 points.
Our take: we give the Heat a 90% chance to win this game outright, so the moneyline is a solid choice here. We give neither team the edge to cover the spread. Check out our basketball betting system to learn more about our daily free betting picks.