The first game in the NBA playoffs on Thursday night features the Miami Heat taking on the Milwaukee Bucks. The game at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI, is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET, and will be televised on TNT.
In Game 1 of this series, the Heat won 110-87, and covered the spread as 13 point home favorites. The total was a PUSH in that one at 197 points. In Game 2, the Heat won again, 98-86, but the Bucks won against the spread as 14 point road underdogs. The total went UNDER the 197 point line that was set.
Miami is 4-0 ATS coming off of a loss spreadwise, and 10-1 ATS against teams with a losing record overall. They are 4-1 ATS on Thursday night, and 8-2 ATS overall lately. They are 8-2 ATS against the Eastern Conference, and 4-1 ATS against the Central Division. They are 10-3 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record at home, and 19-7 ATS on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 3 of the Heat’s last 4 games against teams with a losing record, and OVER in 4 of their last 5 on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 9 against the Central Division, and UNDER in 3 of their last 5 games in the Conference Quarterfinals.
Milwaukee is 19-7 ATS at home following a road trip of at least seven days, and 4-1 ATS following a SU loss. They are 5-11-1 ATS in the Conference Quarterfinals, and 6-14 ATS at home. They are 6-20 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents, and 3-12 ATS against the Southeast Division. They are 1-4 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Bucks’ last 5 games following a win spreadwise, and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games in the Conference Quarterfinals. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against teams with a winning record, and OVER in 4 of their last 5 at home against teams with a winning road record. The total has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5 overall.
Between these teams, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 meetings, and OVER in 15 of their last 21 matchups in Milwaukee.
For tonight’s game, the Heat are listed as 7 ½ point road favorites. The over/under is set at 194 ½ points.
Our take: we give the Heat a 73% chance to win the game on the moneyline, but neither team has a strong edge to cover the spread. Take a look at the basketball betting system we use for these picks for more analysis.