The NBA Finals resume tonight with a change in scenery as the Miami Heat take on the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3. The game at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX, is scheduled to tip off at 9:00 PM ET, and will be televised on ABC.
This series is tied up at one game apiece. The Spurs pulled off the upset in Game 1, winning 92-88, and covering the spread as 5 point road underdogs. In Game 2, the Heat came back with a vengeance, winning 103-84, and winning against the spread as 6 ½ point home favorites. The total has gone UNDER in both games of this series so far.
Miami Heat Betting Trends
The Heat shoot 49.6% from the field, and make 8.7 three-point shots per game. They average 38.6 rebounds per game.
Miami is 5-1 ATS in the NBA Finals, and 4-1 ATS against Western Conference opponents. They are 20-6 ATS on the road, and 6-2 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They are 0-6 ATS following a SU win, and 0-4 ATS following a win spreadwise.
The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the Heat’s recent games overall, and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against the Western Conference. The total has gone UNDER in 19 of their last 24 against teams with a winning record, and OVER in 8 of their last 11 against the Southwest Division. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 15 games coming off of one day of rest.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends
The Spurs shoot 48.1% from the field, and 79.1% from the free throw line.
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS following a loss spreadwise, and 6-2 ATS overall recently. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 5-2 ATS in the NBA Finals. They are 39-17-1 ATS against the Southeast Division, and 34-15-2 ATS against the Eastern Conference.
The total has gone UNDER in all 4 of the Spurs’ recent NBA Finals games, and OVER in 5 of their last 6 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 8 against the Southeast Division, and OVER in 16 of their last 22 games on Tuesday. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 coming off of one day of rest, and OVER in 5 of their last 7 coming off of a SU loss.
Matchup Trends, Betting Odds, and Pick
Between these teams, the total has gone UNDER in 22 of their last 27 meetings, and UNDER in 10 of their last 12 matchups in San Antonio.
For Tuesday night’s game, the Spurs are listed as 2 point home favorites. The over/under is set at 187 ½ points.
Our pick: we give the Spurs a 66% chance to win this game outright on a moneyline bet. We also give San Antonio a 62.83% chance to cover the point spread in this one. Check out our NBA basketball gambling system for an in-depth look at how our system makes these picks.