The second Western Conference playoffs game on Friday night is a matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors. The game at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA, is scheduled to start at 10:30 PM ET, and will be televised on ESPN2.
In Game 1 of this series, the Nuggets narrowly escaped with the win, 97-95, with the Warriors covering the spread as 7 ½ point road underdogs. The total went UNDER the 211 ½ point line that was set in that one. In Game 2, the Warriors pulled off the upset, winning 131-117 and covering the spread as 8 ½ point road dogs. The total went OVER the 211 ½ point line that was set.
Denver is 11-3 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 10-3 ATS against the Pacific Division. They are 7-3 ATS following a double-digit loss at home, and 43-20-1 ATS against Western Conference opponents. They are 1-5 ATS overall lately, and 12-4 ATS following a SU loss.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Nugget’s last 6 games overall, and OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Western Conference opponents. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 15 games on the road, and UNDER in 14 of their last 19 games on Friday night. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 17 against the Pacific Division, and OVER in 36 of their last 54 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
Golden State is 6-0 ATS in the Conference Quarterfinals, and 5-0 ATS overall lately. They are 4-1 ATS against the Northwest Division, and 19-7 ATS at home following a road trip of at least 7 days. They are 1-4 ATS on Friday, and 5-2 ATS at home against teams with a losing record on the road.
The total has gone OVER in all 5 of the Warriors’ recent home games following a road trip of at least 7 days, and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing road record. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 following a SU win, and OVER in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record overall.
Between these teams, the total has gone OVER in 16 of their last 21 matchups in Golden State.
For tonight’s game, the oddsmakers have it listed as a pick’em. The over/under is set at 212 ½ points.
Our take: we give the Warriors a 53% chance to win this game at home tonight. None of the teams has a strong enough edge to cover the point spread, however. Check out the basketball betting system we use for these picks right here.